A possibility of the short-term strong earthquakes forecasting on materials of cloudiness anomalies satellite surveys

  • Anatolii Vorobiov Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth Institute of Geological Science National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
  • Stanislav Golubov Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth Institute of Geological Science National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
Keywords: earthquakes, forecasts, satellite imagery, cloud anomalies, geological structure, degassing, spectral characteristics


For a prediction of sharp growth of seismicity level and preservation of many people life the most important the short-term forecast of strong earthquakes (ZTR) is the appearance of cloudiness anomalies before strong earthquakes. Today the science has certain achievements in this area.

One of criteria of the short-term forecasting is emergence of cloudiness anomalies before strong earthquakes. Results of identification by means of satellite surveys of linear anomalies of cloudiness which were observed before strong earthquakes in Asia Minor are given in work. The archival images registered by a sensor of MODIS which is established on the meteorological AQUA and TERRA satellites were used. The task consisted in that at the known time and the place of a strong earthquake, to carry out the analysis of cloudiness in the satellite images registered in previous days for the purpose of detection of cloudiness anomalies (in particular linear) to define time difference between emergence of anomalies of cloudiness and a strong earthquake. It turned out that this time difference is obviously connected with a geological structure of the region. For example, cloudiness anomalies near the city of Anapa (Russia) were observed before a strong earthquake (on November 9, 2002, the magnitude of 4.4 points) in 2 days, and cloudiness anomalies before an earthquake on October 23, 2011, magnitude 7.2 near the lake Van (Turkey) began to be observed in 10 days before earthquake, and the most accurate and extended linear cloudiness anomaly was observed in 5 days prior to this earthquake.


Lyushvin, P. V. (2009). Spectral characteristics of seismogenic clouds. Issledovanie Zemli iz kosmosa, no. 2, pp. 19–27. (in Russian). https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=11806963

Lyalko, V. I. (2005). Features of using space exploration materials for predicting earthquakes. Dopovidi NAN Ukrajiny. no. 9, pp. 107–113. (in Ukrinian). http://library.ztu.edu.ua/doccard.php/33362

Morozova, L. I. (2005). Satellite monitoring. Vladivostok, Dalnauka, 136 p. (in Russian).

Morozova, L. I. (2012). Manifestation of geodynamic activity of the earth’s crust in cloud fields. Geologiya I geofizika, vol. 53, no. 4, pp. 38–48. (in Russian). http://www.sibran.ru/journals/issue.php?ID=120479&ARTICLE_ID=135162

Morozova, L. I. (2011). Cloud harbingers of earthquake in Turkey October 23, 2011. Nauka i tekhnologicheskie razrabotki., vol. 90, no. 4. pp. 38–48. (in Russian). http://std.ifz.ru/fileadmin/user_upload/documents/journals/std/90-4/04-STD-90-4.pdf

Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. Prediction of the Haicheng earthquake (1977). Eos 58, pp. 236–272. https://doi.org/10.1029/eo058i005p00236

Shi, H. X., Cai, Z. H., Gao, M. X. (1976). Anomalous migration of shallow groundwater and gases in the Beijing region and the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2, no. l. pp. 55–64. (in Chinese). https://www.osti.gov/etdeweb/biblio/6462374

Spray, J. G. (1992). A physical basis for the frictional melting of some rock - forming minerals. Tectonophysics, 204, pp. 205–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(92)90308-s

Swanson, M. T. (1992). Fault structure, wear mechanisms and rupture processes in pseudotachylyte generation. Tectonophysics, 204, pp. 223–242. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(92)90309-t

The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. URL. https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/forecast/

Vorobiev, A. I., Lyalko, V. I., Podorvan, V. N., Shulga, V. I. Assessment of the magnitude for the large earthquakes using the anomaly cloudiness parameters from satellite images. BOOK OF ABSTRACTS of the European Seismological Commission, 19–24 August 2012 in Moscow, Russia. pp. 196–197. https://books.google.ru/books?id=xRw2lQEACAAJ&hl=ru

Zhonghao Shou, Darrell Harrington. Earthquake Prediction Center. 500E 63rd 19K, New York, NY 10021.

Zhonghao Shou (1999). Earthquake clouds and short term prediction. Published in Science and Utopya, 64, pp. 53–57. October 1999. (in Turkish). pp. 19–27. (in Russian).

Earth observation data applications: Challenges and tasks